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Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement for Fayette, TX, Gonzales, TX, Guadalupe, TX, Lavaca, TX, Wilson, TX, Caldwell, TX, Bastrop, TX

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Tropical Storm Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 16
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX AL092017
1029 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

This product covers SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

Tropical Storm Harvey to bring a significant life-threatening heavy
rainfall event to South Central Texas

NEW INFORMATION

  • CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
  • A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bastrop, Bexar,
    Caldwell, Fayette, and Guadalupe
  • The Tropical Storm Warning has been upgraded to a Hurricane
    Warning for De Witt and Karnes
  • CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

  • A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Atascosa, Bastrop,
    Bexar, Caldwell, Fayette, Gonzales, Guadalupe, Lavaca, and
    Wilson
  • A Hurricane Warning is in effect for De Witt and Karnes

  • STORM INFORMATION:

  • About 490 miles southeast of San Antonio TX or about 430 miles
    southeast of Cuero TX
  • 24.0N 93.3W
  • Storm Intensity 65 mph
  • Movement North-northwest or 340 degrees at 10 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW

Tropical Storm Harvey continues moving slowly northwestward in the
Gulf of Mexico. This northwestward movement is expected to continue and
Harvey should approach the middle Texas coast Friday afternoon into
Saturday. Confidence continues to increase for tropical storm winds and
a significant heavy rainfall event across South Central Texas
beginning Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Flash
flooding and river flooding continue to be the main concerns, mainly
within the Tropical Storm Warning and Flash Flood Watch areas.

Storm total rainfall amounts from Friday through Monday afternoon
could be in the 8 to 15 inch range east of Interstate 35 with isolated
totals in excess of 20 inches possible over areas south of Interstate
10 as Harvey is expected to stall over the area. Devastating mainstem
river flooding is possible east of Interstate 35 and south of
Interstate 10.

Additionally, hurricane force winds of 70 to 80 mph will be possible
for the counties within the Hurricane Warning, while 40 to 50 mph
winds with some gusts to 60 mph will be possible for areas within the
Tropical Storm Warning. The timing of these winds look to arrive Friday
night through Saturday morning. There is a low risk of brief tornadoes
east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 10 Friday evening into
the weekend associated with tropical rain bands.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS

  • FLOODING RAIN:
    Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
    extensive impacts across east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate
  1. Potential impacts include:

– Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
– Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
ditches may become dangerous rivers. In mountain areas,
destructive runoff may run quickly down valleys while
increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
– Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

Protect against dangerous rainfall flooding having possible limited
to significant impacts across areas along and east of Interstate 35.

  • WIND:
    Protect against life-threatening wind having possible devastating
    impacts across areas in the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings
    mainly east of Interstate 35. Potential impacts in this area include:
  • Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
    and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
    greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
    may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
  • Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
    roadway signs blown over.
  • Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
    or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
    routes impassable.
  • Widespread power and communications outages.

Also, protect against life-threatening wind having possible limited
to extensive impacts across areas along the I-35 corridor.

  • TORNADOES:
    Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
    areas within the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warnings. Potential
    impacts include:
  • The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
    of emergency plans during tropical events.
  • A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
    and communications disruptions.
  • Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
    toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
    large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
    knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
    pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

  • OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
    Now is the time to bring to completion all preparations to protect life
    and property in accordance with your emergency plan.

Check-in with your emergency points of contact among family, friends,
and workmates. Inform them of your status and well-being. Let them
know how you intend to ride out the storm and when you plan to
check-in again.

In emergencies it is best to remain calm. Stay informed and focused
on the situation at hand. Exercise patience with those you encounter.
Be a Good Samaritan and helpful to others.

If relocating to a nearby shelter or to the home of a family member
or friend, drive with extra caution, especially on secondary roads.
Remember, many bridges and causeways will be closed once higher winds
arrive. Also, if you encounter water covering the road, seek an
alternate route. Always obey official road signs for closures and
detours.

Closely monitor NOAA Weather radio or other local news outlets for
official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to
the forecast.

  • ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
  • For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
  • For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
  • For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Austin/San Antonio TX around 5 PM CDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

NWS Austin/San Antonio (DE WITT, FAYETTE, GONZALES, LAVACA COUNTIES) Harvey Upgraded to Tropical Storm; Flash Flood Watches Issued for South Central Texas

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Good morning,

Key Points:

  • Confidence is increasing for a significant, life-threatening heavy rainfall event associated with now Tropical Storm Harvey, which is expected to become at least a category 1 hurricane prior to making landfall along the middle Texas Gulf Coast late Friday night or early Saturday morning.
  • A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for areas south of I-10 and along and east of I-35/I-37, including the city of San Antonio. Average rainfall amounts of 8-15 inches with isolated higher amounts up to 20 inches are possible within the watch area.
  • Areas outside the watch area but along and east of I-35 could see 5-10 inches with isolated higher amounts. This area includes the city of Austin.
  • 40-50 mph winds are expected within the area now under a Tropical Storm Warning (replacing the watch). This area may be expanded and upper thresholds for wind speeds increased if Harvey intensifies more than forecast.
  • There remains uncertainty in the forecast track and intensity of Harvey across Texas. Continued changes to the track, intensity, and/or forward speed of Harvey could result in large changes to flooding and wind impacts across South Central Texas.

Update Since Last Briefing:

  • Track guidance has been nudged farther northwest and the forecast forward speed of Harvey over South Texas continues to be very slow.
  • Projected rainfall amounts east of I-35 and south of I-10 have increased (see below).
  • A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for AtascosaGonzales, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, and Lavaca Counties. (This could be expanded if Harvey continues to strengthen.)
  • The Tropical Storm Watch for Fayette County has been cancelled based on Harvey’s current forecast track and updated timing.
  • A Flash Flood Watch has been issued beginning Friday afternoon through Sunday morning. (This will likely need an extension in area and timing as the system continues to evolve through the weekend.)

Threats & Impacts:

Note: Changes in track and intensity may dramatically change the impacts and locations of these threats/impacts. 

Rainfall (Moderate to High Confidence)

  • 8-15 inches of rain east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 10 with isolated totals that may exceed 20 inches Friday afternoon through Monday, including the city of San Antonio. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible across this area.
  • Areas outside the watch area but along I-35 could see 5-10 inches with isolated higher amounts. This area includes the city of Austin.
  • Rainfall totals of less than 5 inches are generally expected west of the Interstate 35 corridor.

Winds: (Moderate Confidence)

Tropical storm force winds of 40 to 50 mph are possible across the area currently under a Tropical Storm Warning. These winds will be most likely on Saturday, but they may arrive as early as early as Friday afternoon. However, Harvey is currently showing signs of strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico, which may require the area of the Tropical Storm Warning to be expanded and upper thresholds for wind speeds increased.

Tornadoes: (Low Confidence)

There may be a marginal to slight risk of tornadoes mainly within the Tropical Storm Warning area. These small tornadoes are typically very short-lived and can spin-up quickly during the daytime or nighttime hours.

Timing and Overview:

Overview:

Tropical Storm Harvey was located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico this morning.  Over the next couple of days Harvey is expected to move northwest and make landfall as a hurricane along the middle Texas Gulf Coast late Friday. Many models now show Harvey stalling or moving slowly inland across South Texas. Tropical storm force winds are still expected to affect southeast sections of South Central Texas on Saturday. Therefore, we have issued Tropical Storm Warnings for these areas (see county list above).

Flooding rain is still expected to be the main concern with Harvey, especially given the forecast slow movement and likelihood that Harvey will stall somewhere over South or South Central Texas. There still remains uncertainty in the forecast track and intensity of Harvey across Texas. Small changes to the track, intensity, and/or forward speed of Harvey will result in large changes to flooding and wind impacts across South Central Texas.

As such, please know that later updates may change the impact areas and threats.

At this time, we urge you to remain closely aware of the changes to the forecast over the next 24-48 hours by monitoring the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov) and your local forecast (www.weather.gov/sanantonio).

 

Additional Information Resources:


Sincerely,
Trevor Boucher, Nick Hampshire, & Larry Hopper
NWS Austin / San Antonio

NWS Austin San Antonio Update on Tropical Depression Harvey. Includes information for DE WITT, FAYETTE, GONZALES, and LAVACA Counties.

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Good evening,

Key Points:

  • Heavy rainfall possible east of I-35 Friday through Monday, leading to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding.
  • Average rainfall amounts of 8-12″ possible east of I-35 with isolated higher amounts in excess of 15″ south of I-10. This could lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in this area, especially given the forecast slow movement and possible stall in Harvey across South Texas. Areas along and west of I-35 could see 2-4 inches with isolated higher amounts. There is the possibility of higher amounts than this in the San Antonio area based on recent model trends.
  • There remains uncertainty in the forecast track of Harvey across Texas. Only small changes to the track or forward speed of Harvey will result in large changes to impacts across South Central Texas. Much higher rainfall amounts will be possible across South Central Texas, including areas into the I-35 corridor, if the track shifts further west or if Harvey stalls or slows forward speed.

Update Since Last Briefing:

  • Track guidance has been nudged farther west and forecast forward speed of Harvey over South Texas has slowed.
  • Projected rainfall amounts east of I-35 and south of I-10 have increased (see below).
  • A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Fayette, Gonzales, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, and Lavaca Counties.

Threats & Impacts:

Note…a change in track and intensity may dramatically change the impacts and locations of these threats/impacts. 

Rainfall 8-12 inches of rain east of Interstate 35 with isolated totals that may exceed 15 inches south of I-10 Friday through Monday. These isolated totals are most likely to occur south of I-10 and east of I-35. Life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible across this area. Areas along and west of I-35 could see 2-4 inches with isolated higher amounts.  There is the possibility of higher amounts than this in the San Antonio area based on recent model trends

Winds:  Tropical storm force winds of 40 to 50 mph are possible across the Tropical Storm Watch most likely on Saturday, but arriving as early as Friday afternoon. Gusts could exceed 60 mph. Areas to the west along the I-35 corridor may experience some low end tropical storm force wind gusts if bands push farther west.

Tornadoes:  There may be a slight risk of tornadoes mainly along rain bands in the front right quadrant of landfall. These small tornadoes can happen day or night.

Timing and Overview:

Overview:

Tropical Depression Harvey was located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico this evening.  Over the next couple of days Harvey is expected to move northwest and strengthen into a strong Tropical Storm and then make landfall as a hurricane along the middle Texas coast late Friday. Many models now show Harvey stalling or moving slowly inland across South Texas. On the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds are expected to affect southeast sections of South Central Texas Saturday and have thus issued Tropical Storm Watches for this area (see County list above).

Flooding rain is expected to be the main concern with Harvey, especially given the forecast slow movement and possible stall in Harvey across South Texas. There remains uncertainty in the forecast track of Harvey across Texas. Only small changes to the track or forward speed of Harvey will result in large changes to impacts across South Central Texas. Much higher rainfall amounts and significant flooding could be possible across South Central Texas, including areas into the I-35 corridor, if the track continues to shift further northwest or if Harvey does indeed slow or stall.

As such please know that later updates may change the impact areas and threats.

At this time we urge you to remain closely aware of the changes to the forecast over the next 24-48 hours by monitoring the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov) and your local forecast (www.weather.gov/sanantonio).

Confidence:

Moderate for location and impacts of Harvey.

Additional Information Resources:


Sincerely,

Jason Runyen

NWS Austin / San Antonio

Tropical Depression Harvey Local Statement from 8/23/2017 10:26 PM to 8/24/2017 6:30 AM CDT for DeWitt County, Gonzales County, Wilson County: Harvey to bring Heavy Rainfall and Tropical Storm Force Winds to South Central Texas.

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Tropical Depression Harvey Local Statement Advisory Number 14
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX AL092017
1026 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

This product covers SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

Harvey to bring Heavy Rainfall and Tropical Storm Force Winds to
South Central Texas

NEW INFORMATION

  • CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
  • None
  • CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:

  • A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for De Witt, Fayette,
    Gonzales, Karnes, Lavaca, and Wilson

  • STORM INFORMATION:

  • About 610 miles south-southeast of La Grange TX or about 580
    miles south-southeast of Cuero TX
  • 21.9N 92.6W
  • Storm Intensity 35 mph
  • Movement Northwest or 325 degrees at 2 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW

Tropical depression Harvey continues to move slowly north and west in
the Gulf of Mexico. Harvey is expected to move northwest and approach
the middle Texas coast late Thursday into Friday. The tropical system
will bring tropical storm winds and heavy rainfall across South Central
Texas beginning Friday and continuing through Monday. Flash flooding
and river flooding are possible, mainly across the Tropical Storm Watch
area.

Storm total rainfall amounts from Friday through Monday afternoon
could be in the 8 to 12 inch range east of Interstate 35 with isolated
totals in excess of 15 inches possible over areas south of Interstate
10.

There remains uncertainty in the forecast track of Harvey across
Texas. Only small changes to the track or speed of Harvey will result
in large changes to impacts across South Central Texas. Much higher
rainfall amounts will be possible across South Central Texas,
including areas into the Interstate 35 corridor, if the track shifts
further west or if Harvey stalls or slows forward speed.

Tropical storm force winds from 40 to 50 mph with some gusts in excess
of 60 mph are possible Friday into the weekend with the best chances
of the higher winds being along the Coastal Plains. There is a low
risk of brief tornadoes east of Interstate 35 Friday evening into the
weekend associated with tropical rain bands.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS

  • FLOODING RAIN:
    Prepare for dangerous rainfall flooding having possible significant
    impacts across areas east of Interstate 35 and south of Interstate 10.
    Potential impacts include:
  • Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations and
    rescues.
  • Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with swifter
    currents and overspill their banks in a few places, especially
    in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams, creeks, canals,
    arroyos, and ditches overflow.
  • Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken foundations.
    Several places may experience expanded areas of rapid
    inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
    areas. Some streets and parking lots take on moving water as
    storm drains and retention ponds overflow. Driving conditions
    become hazardous. Some road and bridge closures.

Elsewhere across SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, little to no impact is
anticipated.

  • WIND:
    Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across
    the Tropical Storm Watch Area. Potential impacts in this area include:
  • Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage
    to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings
    experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile
    homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight
    objects become dangerous projectiles.
  • Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
    numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
    fences and roadway signs blown over.
  • Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
    or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access
    routes impassable.
  • Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in
    areas with above ground lines.
  • TORNADOES:
    Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across
    areas east of I-35. Potential impacts include:

  • The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
    of emergency plans during tropical events.
  • A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
    and communications disruptions.
  • Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
    toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
    large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
    knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
    pulled from moorings.
  • Elsewhere across SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, little to no impact is
    anticipated.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS

    • OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
      Now is the time to check your emergency plan and take necessary actions
      to secure your home or business. Deliberate efforts should be underway
      to protect life and property. Ensure that your Emergency Supplies Kit
      is stocked and ready.

    If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
    near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low lying or poor
    drainage area, in a valley or canyon, or near an already swollen
    river, plan to move to safe shelter on higher ground.

    If you live in a place that is particularly vulnerable to high wind,
    such as a mobile home, an upper floor of a high rise building, or on
    a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. Take enough supplies for you
    and your family for several days.

    Be a Good Samaritan and check on those who may not be fully aware of
    the situation or who are unable to make personal preparations.

    Closely monitor NOAA Weather Radio or other local news outlets for
    official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the
    forecast.

    • ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
    • For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
    • For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
    • For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

    TXDOT Hurricane Evacuation Information

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    Twitter and Facebook Notifications

    TxDOT will continue to use Twitter feeds and Facebook to deliver storm preparedness, road condition and evacuation information to social media users. Follow these for up-to-the-minute transportation news and local traffic information.

    Storm-related Twitter hashtags will be provided for an easy way to find important hurricane information.

    Be Prepared

    The time to be prepared and make evacuation plans is now. Start by reviewing our hurricane evacuation maps below and selecting an evacuation route for you and your family.

    Evacuation Routes

    Evacuation route maps from the Texas coast, including from Beaumont, Corpus Christi, Houston, Pharr and Yoakum, are available. Guides for traveling major highways in the region during an evacuation are also available. Activated evacuation routes will be reflected in current road conditions or by calling (800) 452-9292.

    Evacuation routes for all districts and routes, from Beaumont to Brownsville. Evacuation routes forBeaumont, including Port Arthur.
    Evacuation routes for Corpus Christi, including Aransas Pass and Port Aransas. Evacuation routes forHouston, including Harris County and Galveston.
    Evacuation routes for Pharr, including Brownsville, Laredo and McAllen. Evacuation routes forYoakum, including Victoria and Matagorda Bay.

    Mandatory Evacuations

    If state or local officials order a mandatory evacuation – leave immediately. Be sure your home is secure, and take your pets with you.

    Unless you are physically unable to evacuate, we urge you to obey evacuation orders. Remember, the longer you wait, the more likely you are to get stuck in evacuation traffic. If you are elderly or disabled and need evacuation assistance, please call 2-1-1.

    Emergency Management Officials

    Prepare a Survival Kit

    If you believe you will not be evacuating during a hurricane, please prepare a survival kit. Some reasons for not evacuating include:

    • A mandatory evacuation is not issued.
    • You are physically or financially unable to leave your home.
    • You live in an area that is not prone to flooding or storm surges.

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    Weather Reports

    During a weather emergency, stay tuned to local news/weather bulletins, and visit the National Weather Service for the latest weather information.

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