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TTR Weather Update for Calhoun, Goliad, and Victoria Counties

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…Heavy Rain and Isolated Severe Storms Possible Friday Through Sunday…

Timing and Overview:

A long duration heavy rainfall event is shaping up for portions of South Texas this weekend, beginning Friday Afternoon and persisting through Sunday, and possibly Monday before ending.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well as a threat for isolated Severe Storms.  The heaviest rains are expected to fall across the Coastal Bend generally east of Interstate 37 where totals of 3 to 6 inches of rainfall will possible by the end of the event on Monday.  Lesser amounts are expected out west where 1 to 2 inches are possible.

Storms exiting northeast Mexico Friday evening will move across the brush country and southern Coastal Bend during the overnight hours Friday Night . Some of these storms could be severe with large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two.  This focus for Severe Weather is expected to shift eastward over the Coastal Bend on Saturday, generally east of Interstate 37.  Some models are indicating the threat for Isolated severe storms will continue on Sunday as well depending on whether the cold front moves off the coast or remains over land.
South Texas Impacts:

Tornadoes:  A few tornadoes are possible.


Winds:
  Damaging winds of 60 mph or greater.
Hail:  Large Hail (one inch diameter or greater)
Rainfall:  Widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the Brush County (including Laredo & Cotulla),  3 to locally 6 inches across the Coastal Bend (including Corpus Christi, Rockport, Victoria & Port Lavaca)  Minor street flooding possible.  The West Gulf River Forecast Center indicated minor flooding will also possible on area creeks and rivers.

Sincerely,
John Metz
NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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