The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a large area disturbed weather, remnants of Harvey, over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Conditions will become more favorable for tropical development over the coming days as the system eventually moves into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It still is too early to pinpoint exact specifics with regards to strength and track, but an increasing threat to South Texas could evolve. Even if this system moves inland south of the area, we will be monitoring for the potential of heavy rainfall by the end of the week.
This update is to provide situational awareness regarding the area of disturbed weather formerly known as TS Harvey. We are still tracking this tropical disturbance currently located over the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters this morning. NHC gives it a 90% chance of development over the next 5 days as the disturbance continues tracking over the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche early Wednesday. NHC has shifted the hatched red area slightly northward toward the lower to middle Texas coast, as indicated in the attached Tropical Weather Outlook graphic. NHC expects a tropical depression to form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday or Thursday.
Given this potential shift northward, there could be an increase in risk for higher rainfall amounts Thursday through Sunday. WPC has placed the lower to middle Texas coastline under a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall for Thursday morning through Friday Morning, as indicated in the attached Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Outlook.
Depending on the track and development of this system, parts of the Upper Texas coast could see increasing winds and seas.