Not much change in the thinking from the National Hurricane Center with a medium (50%) chance of development in the NW Caribbean Sea, Yucatan Peninsula, or southern Gulf of Mexico over the next five days.
Items to Consider:
- The system has yet to develop.
- Any development should be slow to occur.
- Confidence continues to slowly increase that if the disturbance develops, it will move into either the Bay of Campeche or the southern Gulf of Mexico.
- Low certainty continues as to which direction the disturbance may move if it enters the Gulf.
- Still too early to speculate what (if any) impacts may occur across the Gulf of Mexico or Texas.
Note: Our new office tropical weather web page is now available: http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=crp