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Slight Risk of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms and Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Saturday into Early Sunday Morning; Marginal Threat Late Sunday Morning into Tuesday

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Area of Concern: (See graphic)

All of South Central Texas, with greatest potential along and west of I-35.

Severe_Threat_Saturday

Threats & Impacts:

Hail: Up to golf ball size (1.75 inches in diameter)

Winds: Straight line wind gusts over 60 mph

Rainfall: 1-3 inches with isolated 4-5″ amounts possible through Tuesday Morning.

Timing and Overview:

Although warm air aloft (or the “cap”) has prevented showers and thunderstorms from developing the last several days, a cold front will approach the region overnight and move through slowly during the afternoon and evening to allow for at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the afternoon and evening storms, but this threat should decrease as the locally heavy rainfall threat increases late in the evening and overnight hours. Confidence in flooding impacts has decreased because of the lack of rainfall the region has received over the last few weeks and model uncertainties, but isolated instances of flash flooding outside of the typical low water crossings, small creeks, and streams may occur for a few spots that could receive 4-5 inches of rain.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Tuesday when a stronger front is forecast to move through the region. The threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall on Sunday is expected to be lower than on Saturday, but locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain could have an increased flash flood threat. Thus, please continue to remain alert over the weekend and into early next week as this period of active weather continues.

Confidence:

Low to Moderate

Additional Information Resources:
NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpage: http://www.weather.gov/sanantonio
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Online Severe Weather Reporting: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=EWX

Sincerely,
Larry Hopper, Cory Van Pelt, and Nick Hampshire
NWS Austin / San Antonio

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