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Moderate to Very High Fire Danger Today Across All of South Central Texas.

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…Red Flag Warning in Effect from 11 AM to 4 PM Today for Parts of the Rio Grande Plains…

Area of Concern:

Red Flag Warning: South and west of a line from Del Rio to Hondo to Dilley
Elevated to Near Critical Fire Weather Concerns: The rest of South Central Texas
Threats & Impacts:

Wind: Northwest wind 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph developing by late morning before becoming more northerly in the afternoon with winds weakening by late afternoon.

Humidity: Minimum relative humidity values 15-20% along and west of Highway 281 and 20-30% east of Highway 281.

Impacts: Fires that develop in cured grasses will likely spread rapidly with substantial resistance to wildland fire control efforts possible, particularly in the Rio Grande Plains. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Timing and Overview:

Low relative humidity values and gusty north to northwest winds behind a dry cold front will produce locally critical fire weather conditions across parts of the Rio Grande Plains south and west of a Del Rio to Hondo to Dilley line with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions for the rest of South Central Texas. These conditions will combine with rapidly decreasing fuel moisture values after a week of highs ranging from the mid 70s to lower 90s each day to lead to a high to very high forecast fire danger by TFS over the Rio Grande Plains with moderate to high forecast fire danger over the rest of South Central Texas. Rapid fire growth and spread will likely occur in cured fuels that ignite (e.g., dry grasses). Relative humidity values will fall below 20 percent by late morning with northwest 10-20 mph winds gusting to 25 mph over the Rio Grande Plains. These relative humidity values will remain below 20 percent until sunset, but winds should decrease enough to help decrease fire spread concerns by 4 pm this afternoon.
Confidence:

Forecast Relative Humidity and Fire Danger: High

Forecast Wind Speeds: Moderate

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Additional Information Resources:
NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpage: http://www.weather.gov/sanantonio
NWS Austin / San Antonio Fire Weather Webpage: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ewx/?n=firewx.htm
Texas Forest Service Predictive Services: http://ticc.tamu.edu/PredictiveServices/FuelsFireDanger.htm

Sincerely,
Larry Hopper and Constantine Pashos
NWS Austin / San Antonio

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