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Isolated Heavy Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms Possible Across most of South Central Texas Monday Night though Tuesday Morning.

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TTR Weather Update from NWS Austin-San Antonio, including information for De Witt, Fayette, Gonzales, and Lavaca Counties –

Area of Concern:

Heavy Rainfall: Most of south central Texas, especially across the Hill Country.

Severe Weather: Marginal risk tonight along and west of the I-35 corridor. Slight to Enhanced risk Tuesday morning east of the I-35/I-37 corridor.

021317_SevereThreat
Threats & Impacts:

Tornadoes: A few brief tornadoes possible, especially Tuesday morning east of the I-35/I-37 corridor across the Coastal Plains.

Winds:  Wind gusts to 60 mph.

Hail: Quarter-sized hail possible.

21317_RainfallThreatPMRainfall: Average rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with highest amounts across the Hill Country. Less than an inch of rain can be expected along and south of an Eagle Pass to Pleasanton to Cuero line. The heavy rainfall could result in localized flash flooding.

Timing and Overview:

An upper level disturbance with an accompanying surface low and cold front will traverse eastward across the region tonight and Tuesday morning. Southeasterly winds will bring ample moisture into the region from the Gulf of Mexico, more than sufficient to produce showers and thunderstorms.

A line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the western portions of the Hill County/Edwards Plateau to the Rio Grande plains between midnight and 3 am. The eastern Hill Country and I-35/I-37 corridor between 3 am and 7 am. And the coastal plains between 7 am and 10 am.

There is a marginal threat for severe weather tonight and into early tomorrow morning across portions of the Hill Country to the I-35 corridor. Primary threats will be hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts up to 60 mph. A brief tornado may be possible, but is not likely.

Severe weather potential will increase Tuesday morning across the coastal plains east of the I-35/I-37 corridor. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a slight to enhanced threat for severe thunderstorms. In addition to hail and gusty winds, a tornado or two will be possible.

Please see attached graphics for more details on the timing and intensity of the heavy rainfall and severe weather.

Confidence:

Moderate to High

Additional Information Resources:

·         NWS Austin / San Antonio Contact Numbers:  800-292-5508 or 830-606-3617

·         NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpage:  http://www.weather.gov/sanantonio

·         Storm Prediction Center:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

·         Online Severe Weather Reporting:  http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=EWX

Request for Information:

Please relay severe weather reports and/or photo’s of severe weather to sr-ewx.alert@noaa.gov

Sincerely,

Brett Williams, Jon Zeitler & Aaron Treadway

NWS Austin / San Antonio

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