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TTR Weekend Weather Update for De Witt, Fayette, Gonzales, and Lavaca Counties from the National Weather Service.

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…Warm conditions Friday through Sunday with Elevated Heat Index Values…

…Storms with Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Sunday Afternoon through Monday across the Rio Grande and western Hill Country…

Area of Concern:

Heat: All of South-Central Texas, especially areas outside of the Hill Country.
Locally Heavy Rainfall: Rio Grande and western Hill Country

Frfi-Sun Heat Index Sun-Mon Rainfall

Threats & Impacts:

Heat Indices: Peak values of 100-108 degrees each afternoon Friday-Sunday. Prolonged exposure to this excessive heat could lead to dehydration and heat exhaustion.

Rainfall: 1-3 inches across the Rio Grande and western Hill Country late Sunday through Monday. Isolated higher amounts likely. This could lead to localized flash flooding of smaller creeks, streams, and low water crossings. The most susceptible rivers where isolated minor to moderate flooding is possible will be the Rio Grande, Upper Nueces, and Fro Rivers.

Timing and Overview:

Heat will be the main story for the first half of the holiday weekend across South Central Texas. Heat index values each afternoon Friday through Sunday are forecast to peak around 100 to 108 degrees for locations outside the Hill Country. With this being the Memorial Holiday Weekend please be extra vigilant with prolonged heat exposure and take frequent breaks out of the direct sunlight and heat.

As we get into late Sunday and Monday rain chances will increase, especially across western areas of the Hill Country and Rio Grande. Models have been keying in on a possible round of showers and storms that could bring locally heavy rainfall to this region. Farther east it is too soon to determine any types of impacts from heavy rainfall, if any, as forecast confidence decreases beyond Monday.

Stay tuned through the holiday weekend for updates on rainfall chances and potential impacts as forecast confidence increases.

Confidence:

Heat: High
Locally Heavy Rainfall: Low to Moderate

Additional Information Resources:
NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpage: http://www.weather.gov/sanantonio
Heat and Safety Tips: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/
AHPS River Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ewx

Sincerely,
Jason Runyen
NWS Austin / San Antonio

 

Slight Risk of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms and Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Saturday into Early Sunday Morning; Marginal Threat Late Sunday Morning into Tuesday

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Area of Concern: (See graphic)

All of South Central Texas, with greatest potential along and west of I-35.

Severe_Threat_Saturday

Threats & Impacts:

Hail: Up to golf ball size (1.75 inches in diameter)

Winds: Straight line wind gusts over 60 mph

Rainfall: 1-3 inches with isolated 4-5″ amounts possible through Tuesday Morning.

Timing and Overview:

Although warm air aloft (or the “cap”) has prevented showers and thunderstorms from developing the last several days, a cold front will approach the region overnight and move through slowly during the afternoon and evening to allow for at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the afternoon and evening storms, but this threat should decrease as the locally heavy rainfall threat increases late in the evening and overnight hours. Confidence in flooding impacts has decreased because of the lack of rainfall the region has received over the last few weeks and model uncertainties, but isolated instances of flash flooding outside of the typical low water crossings, small creeks, and streams may occur for a few spots that could receive 4-5 inches of rain.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Tuesday when a stronger front is forecast to move through the region. The threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall on Sunday is expected to be lower than on Saturday, but locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain could have an increased flash flood threat. Thus, please continue to remain alert over the weekend and into early next week as this period of active weather continues.

Confidence:

Low to Moderate

Additional Information Resources:
NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpage: http://www.weather.gov/sanantonio
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Online Severe Weather Reporting: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=EWX

Sincerely,
Larry Hopper, Cory Van Pelt, and Nick Hampshire
NWS Austin / San Antonio

TTR Weekend Weather for DE WITT, FAYETTE, GONZALES, & LAVACA Counties from the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio

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image5
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

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A weak cold front will slowly move across our area on Saturday into Sunday and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday through Monday.

Now, your TTR Weekend Weather Forecast:

Tonight
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid-70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph before midnight.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday Night
Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s.

Have a good weekend!

TTR Weather Update for COLORADO, JACKSON, and WHARTON Counties from National Weather Service Houston/Galveston

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A slow moving frontal boundary will move into northern parts of southeast Texas Saturday afternoon. It will eventually stall near the coast Sunday and then meander about the region through Tuesday. This feature combined with a series of upper-level disturbances moving overhead will provide chances of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.

Impacts
The majority of computer models are indicating that most locations should receive just beneficial rainfall through the weekend – generally less than 1.5 inches (and even less than that along the beaches). That being said, history has shown that slow moving or stalled boundaries like this during May can sometimes pose a localized heavy rainfall threat that we will need to keep an eye on for potential flash flooding.

Locations
We will begin focusing on areas generally north and northwest of Highway 59 Saturday evening through Sunday morning.  Beyond that, and through Tuesday, forecasts and hazards will be highly dependent where the surface boundary is situated. This likely will be too difficult to forecast with much accuracy beyond 12- 24 hours (and possibly earlier).

Bottom Line
There is considerable forecast uncertainty at this point.  So enjoy your weekend, but keep up with the latest weather forecasts.

Resources
Brian Kyle and Wendy Wong
National Weather Service – Houston/Galveston, TX
Twitter: @NWSHouston
Facebook: NWSHouston

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and Friday. Concerns shift to primarily heavy rainfall over the weekend, possibly resulting in flash flooding.

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Area of Concern:

Today/Friday Severe: Along and west of the I-35 corridor.

051817_Z_todaysevere

051817_Z_Fridaysevere
Weekend Heavy Rain: All of South Central Texas.

051817_Z_weekendrain

Threats & Impacts:

Hail:  Up to 2 inches in diameter (Today/Friday)

Winds:  Straight line wind gusts over 60 mph. (Today/Friday)

Rainfall:  1-3 inches with isolated 4-5″ amounts possible. (48 hour rainfall totals from 7AM Saturday – 7AM Monday)

Timing and Overview:

Multiple rounds of active weather are expected today through the weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and west of the I-35 corridor this afternoon and evening, Friday morning, and possibly again Friday afternoon. Large hail is the primary concern with the severe weather episodes. However, damaging winds gusts will also be possible.

Saturday, a cold front passage will shift the concern from severe weather to heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding. Heavy rainfall may begin as early as Saturday morning and persist through Sunday evening. Generally, 1-3 inches of rainfall are expected, but isolated amounts of 4-5 inches may occur.

Confidence:

Hail/wind: Low to Moderate
Rainfall this weekend: Moderate

Additional Information Resources:

NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpagehttp://www.weather.gov/sanantonio

Storm Prediction Centerhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Online Severe Weather Reporting
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=EWX

Sincerely,
Trevor Boucher
NWS Austin / San Antonio

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