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Tropical Depression Harvey Briefing from NWS Austin-San Antonio, includes information for DE WITT, FAYETTE, GONZALES, and LAVACA Counties.

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Good afternoon,

  • Heavy rainfall possible east of I-35 Friday through the weekend, possibly leading to flash flooding and river flooding.
  • Average rainfall amounts of 6-10″ possible east of I-35 with isolated higher amounts in excess of 12″ in the Tropical Storm Watch area.  This could lead to flash flooding and river flooding in this area. Areas along and west of I-35 could see 2-4 inches.
  • There remains uncertainty in the forecast track of Harvey across Texas. Only small changes to the track or forward speed of Harvey will result in large changes to impacts across South Central Texas. Much higher rainfall amounts will be possible across South Central Texas, including areas into the I-35 corridor, if the track shifts further west or if Harvey stalls or slows forward speed.

Update Since Last Briefing:

  • Forecast forward speed of Harvey over South Texas has slowed.
  • Projected rainfall amounts east of I-35 have increased (see below).
  • A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Fayette, Gonzales, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, and Lavaca Counties.

Threats & Impacts:

Note…a change in track and intensity may dramatically change the impacts and locations of these threats/impacts. 

Rainfall 6-10 inches of rain east of Interstate 35 with isolated totals that may exceed 12 inches Friday through the weekend. These isolated totals are most likely to occur across Fayette, Lavaca, Gonzales, and DeWitt counties. Areas along and west of I-35 could see 2-4 inches.  Flash Flooding and River Flooding is possible mainly across the Tropical Storm Watch area.

Winds:  Tropical storm force winds of 40 to 50 mph are possible across the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning on Friday night. Gusts could exceed 60 mph. Areas to the west along the I-35 corridor may experience some low end tropical storm force wind gusts if bands push farther west.

Tornadoes:  There may be a slight risk of tornadoes mainly along rain bands in the front right quadrant of landfall. These small tornadoes can happen day or night.

Timing and Overview:

Overview:

Tropical Depression Harvey was located over the southwest Gulf of Mexico late this afternoon and continues to gradually organize.  Over the next couple of days Harvey is expected to move northwest and strengthen into a strong Tropical Storm, making landfall along the middle Texas coast late Friday. On the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds are expected to affect southeast sections of South Central Texas on Friday and Saturday and have thus issued Tropical Storm Watches for this area (see County list above).

Flooding rain is expected to be the main concern with Harvey. There remains uncertainty in the forecast track of Harvey across Texas. Only small changes to the track or forward speed of Harvey will result in large changes to realized impacts across South Central Texas. Much higher rainfall amounts and significant flooding could be possible across South Central Texas, including areas into the I-35 corridor, if the track shifts further west or if Harvey stalls or slows forward speed.

As such please know that later updates may change the impact areas and threats.

At this time we urge you to remain closely aware of the changes to the forecast over the next 24-48 hours by monitoring the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov) and your local forecast (www.weather.gov/sanantonio).  As this system We expect greater detail and confidence in the forecast tomorrow.

Confidence:

Moderate for location and impacts of Harvey.

Additional Information Resources:


Sincerely,

Jason Runyen

NWS Austin / San Antonio

Weather Forecast Office

Governor Abbott Declares State of Disaster For 30 Texas Counties in Anticipation Of Tropical Depression Harvey Making Landfall

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August 23, 2017 | Austin, Texas | Press Release

In anticipation of Tropical Depression Harvey making landfall in the Gulf Coast region, Governor Greg Abbott today preemptively declared a State of Disaster for Aransas, Austin, Bee, Calhoun, Chambers, Colorado, Brazoria, DeWitt, Fayette, Fort Bend, Galveston, Goliad, Gonzales, Harris, Jackson, Jefferson, Jim Wells, Karnes, Kleberg, Lavaca, Liberty, Live Oak, Matagorda, Nueces, Refugio, San Patricio, Victoria, Waller, Wharton and Wilson counties. Forecasts from the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center expect this storm to intensify in the coming days causing severe flooding, storm surges and damaging winds. Earlier today the Governor ordered the State Operations Center (SOC) to elevate its readiness level as the storm approaches, and made available any and all state resources to assist in preparation, rescue and recovery efforts.

“Texans believe in taking action and always being prepared in the event of an emergency,” said Governor Abbott.  “That is why I am taking every precaution prior to Tropical Depression Harvey making landfall. Preemptively declaring a state of disaster will allow Texas to quickly deploy resources for the emergency response effort in anticipation of the storm’s hazardous conditions.”

TS Harvey Update from NWS Austin-San Antonio includes information for DE WITT, FAYETTE, GONZALES, and LAVACA Counties.

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Headline:

…Tropical Storm Watches in effect for southeast portions of South Central Texas…

…Tropical Storm Watches in effect for….Fayette, Gonzales, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, and Lavaca Counties…

Area of Concern:

Primarily areas east of Interstate 37 and east of Interstate 35.  This includes the following counties of… Fayette, Gonzales, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, and Lavaca.

Word of caution…While the areas listed above will likely see the biggest impacts (Wind and Rain) from Harvey, small changes in the track/intensity, may push the impacts and tropical watches/warnings farther west to possibly include the I-35 corridor and the Austin-San Antonio metro areas.

Threats & Impacts:

Note…a change in track and intensity may dramatically change the impacts and locations of these threats/impacts. 

Rainfall:  3-6 inches of rain east of Interstate 35 with isolated totals that may exceed 10 inches in the Tropical Storm Watch areas especially across the far eastern areas.  Areas along and west of I-35 could see 1-3 inches.   Flash Flooding and River Flooding is possible mainly across the Tropical Storm Watch area.

Winds:  Tropical storm force winds of 40 to 50 mph are possible across the Watch area, with gusts that could exceed 60 mph.  Areas to the west along the I-35 corridor may experience some low end tropical storm force wind gusts if bands push farther west.

Tornadoes:  There may be a slight risk of tornadoes mainly along rain bands in the front right quadrant of landfall. These small tornadoes can happen day or night.

Timing and Overview:

Overview:

The remnants of Harvey have reformed into a tropical depression just west of the Yucatan in the Bay of Campeche.  Over the next couple of days Harvey is expected to strengthen into a strong Tropical Storm and make landfall along the middle Texas coast.  On the current forecast track, tropical storm force winds are expected to affect southeast sections of South Central Texas on Friday and Saturday and have thus issued Tropical Storm Watches for this area (see County list above).  As with any tropical system, flooding rainfall and strong winds will be the primary threat.

There remains uncertainty on exactly where the system could impact along the Texas coast and locations inland. As such please know that later updates may change the impact areas and threats.  The system is forecast to move very slowly over SE Texas over the weekend.

It should be stressed that there is the potential for much higher rainfall amounts across South Central Texas if the center of system ends up tracking farther west and much lower amounts if the center of the system tracks toward the Upper Texas Coast.

At this time we urge you to remain closely aware of the changes to the forecast over the next 24-48 hours by monitoring the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov) and your local forecast (www.weather.gov/sanantonio).  As this system We expect greater detail and confidence in the forecast tomorrow.

Confidence:

Moderate for location and impacts of Harvey.

Additional Information Resources:


Sincerely,

Paul Yura
NWS Austin / San Antonio

TS Harvey Update from NWS Corpus Christi includes information for CALHOUN, GOLIAD, and VICTORIA Counties, VICTORIA CROSSROADS, COASTAL BEND, and BRUSH COUNTRY.

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Here is the latest information as of 10 AM concerning Tropical Depression Harvey

Summary of 10 AM Information

Hurricane Watch in effect from Port Mansfield to San Luis Pass including Corpus Christi and surrounding areas

Storm Surge Watch in effect from Port Mansfield to High Island including Corpus Christi and surrounding areas

Location: 21.5 N  92.5 W or 535 Miles SSE of Port O’Conner TX

Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph
Present Movement:  NW at 9 mph
Minimum Central Pressure:  1006 mb

Additional Information Resources:

National Hurricane Center:
  www.hurricanes.gov
NWS Corpus Christi:  www.weather.gov/corpuschristi

New Local Tropical Webpage:  http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=crp

Sincerely,
John
NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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