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TTR Weather Update for Colorado, Jackson, and Wharton Counties

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  • Cold front tonight
  • Breezy/windy and colder Thursday
  • Possible freeze Thursday night through Friday morning

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The cold front will move through Southeast Texas tonight. It will turn colder on Thursday with highs in the 40s/50s and wind chills in the 30s/40s. It will be breezy inland and windy at the coast (Wind Advisory near the coast and Gale Warning for the Gulf Waters on Thursday. Freezing temperatures for several hours will be possible Thursday night through Friday morning with wind chills in the 20s/30s.

Josh Lichter
Houston/Galveston National Weather Service Office

…A Strong Cold Front will Bring Windy Conditions Thursday and a Freeze Thursday Night…

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Area of Concern:

Hill Country and I-35 eastward, including Austin and San Antonio.

Threats & Impacts:

Winds: 15-25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph likely along and east of I-35.

Air Temperature: Highs Thursday in the upper 30s across the Hill Country and low to mid 40s elsewhere. Lows Friday morning in the mid 20s across the Hill Country and upper 20 to low 30s along and east of of I-35 from Austin to San Antonio. See attached map.

Freezing temperatures late Thursday night through Friday morning could last 9-12 hours across the Hill Country, 3-6 hours across Central Texas and Austin metro, and less than 3 hours where it freezes elsewhere. A hard freeze across the Hill Country could have a significant impact on sensitive plants and pets. Elderly persons or young children could suffer hyperthermia if exposed to long duration of extremely cold temperatures. Elsewhere a light freeze may impact young sensitive plants and pets.

Wind Chill (feels like temp): During the day on Thursday mid to upper 20s across the Hill Country and 30s elsewhere. Thursday night and Friday morning in the upper teens across the Hill Country and 20s elsewhere.

Winter Weather: A light rain/sleet mix could develop Thursday across the far northern Hill Country and Central Texas, north of a Fredericksburg to Georgetown line. No impacts are expected as ground temperatures remain above freezing.

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Timing and Overview:

An arctic cold front will move through South Central Texas late tonight. Much colder conditions will occur Thursday through Friday, along with windy conditions Thursday. A freeze is expected across portions of the area Thursday night into Friday morning. A hard freeze is possible across the Hill Country and portions of Central Texas with a light freeze along the I-35 corridor and east. The winds will make temperatures feel much colder Thursday and Thursday night.

In addition there is a slight chance a mix of rain and sleet Thursday behind the front across the far northern Hill Country and portions of Central Texas, north of a Fredericksburg to Georgetown line. Given ground temperatures little to no impacts are expected through the Hill Country and southern areas of Central Texas. Light accumulations are possible farther north of the forecast region.

Confidence:

Winds: Very High
Freezing Temperatures: High
Wintry Precipitation: Low
Sincerely,
Jason Runyen

NWS Austin / San Antonio

TTR Weather Update for Calhoun, Goliad, and Victoria Counties

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…Heavy Rain and Isolated Severe Storms Possible Friday Through Sunday…

Timing and Overview:

A long duration heavy rainfall event is shaping up for portions of South Texas this weekend, beginning Friday Afternoon and persisting through Sunday, and possibly Monday before ending.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well as a threat for isolated Severe Storms.  The heaviest rains are expected to fall across the Coastal Bend generally east of Interstate 37 where totals of 3 to 6 inches of rainfall will possible by the end of the event on Monday.  Lesser amounts are expected out west where 1 to 2 inches are possible.

Storms exiting northeast Mexico Friday evening will move across the brush country and southern Coastal Bend during the overnight hours Friday Night . Some of these storms could be severe with large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two.  This focus for Severe Weather is expected to shift eastward over the Coastal Bend on Saturday, generally east of Interstate 37.  Some models are indicating the threat for Isolated severe storms will continue on Sunday as well depending on whether the cold front moves off the coast or remains over land.
South Texas Impacts:

Tornadoes:  A few tornadoes are possible.


Winds:
  Damaging winds of 60 mph or greater.
Hail:  Large Hail (one inch diameter or greater)
Rainfall:  Widespread amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the Brush County (including Laredo & Cotulla),  3 to locally 6 inches across the Coastal Bend (including Corpus Christi, Rockport, Victoria & Port Lavaca)  Minor street flooding possible.  The West Gulf River Forecast Center indicated minor flooding will also possible on area creeks and rivers.

Sincerely,
John Metz
NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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TTR Weather Update for Colorado, Jackson, and Wharton Counties

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Updated 12/2/16 at 7:43am.

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Confidence increasing for a large flood event across the region.

Changes:
1. Forecast rainfall amounts of widespread 2-4 inches with isolated 8-10 inches. Heavy rains mainly north Saturday shifting south Sunday.
2. Severe thunderstorm threat mainly near the coast Saturday.
3. Coastal Flood Advisory in Effect: Forecast tide levels 3.5 to near 4 feet during high tide Friday evening and Saturday.
Synopsis:
A slow moving strong upper level low coupled with a coastal trough of low pressure will produce widespread rain with periods of showers and thunderstorms. Storms may form bands and train over the same areas.
When:
Friday night through Monday morning with the bulk of the heaviest rain mainly north Friday night and Saturday shifting southward Saturday night and Sunday through through Monday afternoon.
Hazards:
Friday and Saturday: Locally heavy rainfall and lightning mainly north of a Columbus to Conroe to Livingston line. Thunderstorms with Isolated tornadoes possible near the coast beginning Saturday morning. Coastal flooding, elevated tide levels, enhanced currents and rip currents possible.
Saturday night through Monday: Heavy rainfall threat still high and shifting southward and may see clusters/bands of slower moving storms, frequent lightning.  Severe threat (tornadoes/damaging winds) returns Sunday night/Monday morning near the coast.
Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected with locally heavier totals of 8 to 10 inches inches possible. Heavy rainfall Saturday will likely saturate the soils and additional heavy rainfall Saturday night through A Flash Flood Watch will likely be issued this afternoon.

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Tides:

Moderate easterly flow will continue through early Saturday. Tides will become elevated and some minor coastal flooding is possible Friday night and again Saturday night along the Bolivar peninsula. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

Kent Prochazka & Melissa Huffman
National Weather Service
Houston/Galveston

TTR Weather Update for De Witt, Fayette, Gonzales, and Lavaca Counties.

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Posted: 12/02/2016 at 5:04 a.m. CST

…A Heavy Rainfall Pattern Expected Over South Central Texas for the Next Several Days…

Area of Concern:

Along and East of I-35.

Threats & Impacts:

Rainfall:  2 to 5 inches with isolated amounts over 6 inches possible.

Timing and Overview:

An upper level low pressure system will move slowly across northern Mexico and Texas today through Monday, with persistent rains expected through the period. Most of the rain is expected to be light to moderate today through Sunday with some brief heavy downpours of 1 to 2 inches possible Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon.  The storm system could produce more widespread heavy downpours Sunday night into early Monday as the upper low begins to cross Texas.  Soil moisture conditions are not expected to be conducive to flooding initially, but there is a potential for flooding by Sunday night. Areas generally east of I-35 are expected to see the heaviest rainfall and possible flooding.

Confidence:

Moderate

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Low Flood Impacts:

  • Several locations may experience minor flooding with flood waters capable of causing small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches to become swollen and overflow in a few places, but with little to no property damage. Quick ponding of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage areas. Storm drains and retention ponds become near-full and begin to overflow in a few places. Flood waters may prompt brief road closures.

Additional Information Resources:

Request for Information:

Please relay flooding reports and/or photo’s of flooding to sr-ewx.alert@noaa.gov

Sincerely,
Monte Oaks and Nick Hampshire
National Weather Service
Austin – San Antonio

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