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Slight Risk of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms and Locally Heavy Rainfall Possible Saturday into Early Sunday Morning; Marginal Threat Late Sunday Morning into Tuesday

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Area of Concern: (See graphic)

All of South Central Texas, with greatest potential along and west of I-35.

Severe_Threat_Saturday

Threats & Impacts:

Hail: Up to golf ball size (1.75 inches in diameter)

Winds: Straight line wind gusts over 60 mph

Rainfall: 1-3 inches with isolated 4-5″ amounts possible through Tuesday Morning.

Timing and Overview:

Although warm air aloft (or the “cap”) has prevented showers and thunderstorms from developing the last several days, a cold front will approach the region overnight and move through slowly during the afternoon and evening to allow for at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with the afternoon and evening storms, but this threat should decrease as the locally heavy rainfall threat increases late in the evening and overnight hours. Confidence in flooding impacts has decreased because of the lack of rainfall the region has received over the last few weeks and model uncertainties, but isolated instances of flash flooding outside of the typical low water crossings, small creeks, and streams may occur for a few spots that could receive 4-5 inches of rain.

Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday into Tuesday when a stronger front is forecast to move through the region. The threat of severe weather and heavy rainfall on Sunday is expected to be lower than on Saturday, but locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain could have an increased flash flood threat. Thus, please continue to remain alert over the weekend and into early next week as this period of active weather continues.

Confidence:

Low to Moderate

Additional Information Resources:
NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpage: http://www.weather.gov/sanantonio
Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Online Severe Weather Reporting: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=EWX

Sincerely,
Larry Hopper, Cory Van Pelt, and Nick Hampshire
NWS Austin / San Antonio

TTR Weekend Weather for DE WITT, FAYETTE, GONZALES, & LAVACA Counties from the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio

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Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the Edwards Plateau and northern Hill Country this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be large hail and damaging winds.

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A weak cold front will slowly move across our area on Saturday into Sunday and bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Pockets of locally heavy rainfall and isolated strong to severe storms will be possible Saturday through Monday.

Now, your TTR Weekend Weather Forecast:

Tonight
Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid-70s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph before midnight.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the mid-80s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday Night
Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 60s.

Have a good weekend!

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TTR Weather Update for COLORADO, JACKSON, and WHARTON Counties from National Weather Service Houston/Galveston

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A slow moving frontal boundary will move into northern parts of southeast Texas Saturday afternoon. It will eventually stall near the coast Sunday and then meander about the region through Tuesday. This feature combined with a series of upper-level disturbances moving overhead will provide chances of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.

Impacts
The majority of computer models are indicating that most locations should receive just beneficial rainfall through the weekend – generally less than 1.5 inches (and even less than that along the beaches). That being said, history has shown that slow moving or stalled boundaries like this during May can sometimes pose a localized heavy rainfall threat that we will need to keep an eye on for potential flash flooding.

Locations
We will begin focusing on areas generally north and northwest of Highway 59 Saturday evening through Sunday morning.  Beyond that, and through Tuesday, forecasts and hazards will be highly dependent where the surface boundary is situated. This likely will be too difficult to forecast with much accuracy beyond 12- 24 hours (and possibly earlier).

Bottom Line
There is considerable forecast uncertainty at this point.  So enjoy your weekend, but keep up with the latest weather forecasts.

Resources
Brian Kyle and Wendy Wong
National Weather Service – Houston/Galveston, TX
Twitter: @NWSHouston
Facebook: NWSHouston

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and Friday. Concerns shift to primarily heavy rainfall over the weekend, possibly resulting in flash flooding.

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Area of Concern:

Today/Friday Severe: Along and west of the I-35 corridor.

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Weekend Heavy Rain: All of South Central Texas.

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Threats & Impacts:

Hail:  Up to 2 inches in diameter (Today/Friday)

Winds:  Straight line wind gusts over 60 mph. (Today/Friday)

Rainfall:  1-3 inches with isolated 4-5″ amounts possible. (48 hour rainfall totals from 7AM Saturday – 7AM Monday)

Timing and Overview:

Multiple rounds of active weather are expected today through the weekend. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly along and west of the I-35 corridor this afternoon and evening, Friday morning, and possibly again Friday afternoon. Large hail is the primary concern with the severe weather episodes. However, damaging winds gusts will also be possible.

Saturday, a cold front passage will shift the concern from severe weather to heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding. Heavy rainfall may begin as early as Saturday morning and persist through Sunday evening. Generally, 1-3 inches of rainfall are expected, but isolated amounts of 4-5 inches may occur.

Confidence:

Hail/wind: Low to Moderate
Rainfall this weekend: Moderate

Additional Information Resources:

NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpagehttp://www.weather.gov/sanantonio

Storm Prediction Centerhttp://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Online Severe Weather Reporting
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=EWX

Sincerely,
Trevor Boucher
NWS Austin / San Antonio

TTR Weather: Severe Weather Threat to Affect Areas Mainly West of I-35 Late Tonight Into Wednesday Morning. Another Round of Active Weather Expected Thursday.

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Area of Concern:

Severe_TonightTonight: Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, Western Hill Country.

Severe_ThursdayThursday: Along and West of I-35.

Threats & Impacts:

Winds: Gusts to 60 mph possible

Hail: Hail in excess of 1 inch possible

Tornadoes: Minimal threat

Rainfall: 0.5 to 1.0 inch

Timing and Overview:

An isolated severe storm or two will be possible near Val Verde County late this afternoon. This activity should mainly impact rural areas of Val Verde county. The greater concern will be late this evening into Wednesday morning as a line of strong to severe storms impacts areas mainly west of the I-35 corridor. The storms could produce strong to severe winds and hail over the Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande Plains, and western Hill Country. As this line of storms approaches the I-35 corridor early Wednesday morning, storm intensities are expected to gradually weaken.

Low impact shower and thunderstorm activity are expected along and east of I-35 on Wednesday, but strong to severe storms are possible over much of South Central Texas again on Thursday. Although the individual rounds of storms are not expected to create a major impact, a persistent chance of storms could lead to increasing concern for flooding this weekend.

Confidence:

Moderate Tonight; Low to Moderate Thursday.

Additional Information Resources:

· NWS Austin / San Antonio Webpage: http://www.weather.gov/sanantonio

· Storm Prediction Center: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

· Online Severe Weather Reporting: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/StormReport/SubmitReport.php?site=EWX

 

Sincerely,

Monte Oaks, Eric Platt, Larry Hopper
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio

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