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Rain chances are on the way for Wednesday into Thursday as an upper level disturbance moves from east to west across the area. Scattered showers and storms are possible across the eastern half of the area on Wednesday and all of South Central Texas on Thursday. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected mid to late week. A second surge of moisture arrives Friday into the weekend with isolated to scattered showers and storms possible across our area through the period.


Today: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs in the upper 90s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Highest heat index readings around 106.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

Independence Day: Cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.

Friday: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.

Saturday: Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower 90s. Highest heat index readings around 105.

Saturday Night And Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s.

Tropical Weather Outlook – 

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the north-central Gulf of Mexico associated with a tropical wave.  The close proximity of this wave to land is expected to prevent any significant development of this system as it moves westward this week, and there is currently a low (10%) chance of tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across South Texas and the Middle Texas Coast Wednesday through Friday as this wave moves westward.  Moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible with some of these storms.  Widespread flooding is not expected at this time.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 3 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms along portions of the northern Gulf Coast.
Although this disturbance is moving inland over southeastern
Louisiana and development is not expected, locally heavy rainfall
is possible over southern Louisiana and southeastern Texas during
the next couple of days.  Additional information on this system can
be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. A non-tropical low pressure system associated with an upper-level
trough is expected to form southwest of Bermuda in a couple of
days. The system could gradually acquire tropical characteristics
later this week while it moves northwestward to northward.  The
disturbance is expected to interact with a front on Sunday and
development is unlikely after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Area Fire Weather Forecast - 

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for South Central Texas
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
647 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

.DISCUSSION...
It will be hot and dry again across all of south central Texas
with afternoon humidity levels dropping to near 20 percent along
the Rio Grande to near 40 percent in the coastal plains. In
addition, south to southeast 20 foot winds will be gusty at
times, especially along the Rio Grande. Rain chances begin to
increase for areas generally along and east of Highway 281 by
tomorrow afternoon, with the best chance for wetting rains across
the coastal plains. Areas along the Rio Grande will stay hot and
dry again on Wednesday. Rain chances spread across the remainder
of the region Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak upper
disturbance moves across the region.

 

TXZ222-224-225-040400-
Karnes-De Witt-Lavaca-
Including the cities of Karnes City, Cuero, and Halletsville
647 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Independence Day

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       MCldy
Chance precip (%)     0            0            60
Precip Type           NONE         NONE         tstms
Temp (24h trend)      99 (+4)      74 (-2)      94
RH % (24h trend)      30 (-5)      95 (-5)      36
20ftWnd-AM(MPH)       SW  6                     SW  6
20ftWnd-PM(MPH)       S  9         SE 11        S 10
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)    6619                      2441
Transport wnd (MPH)   S  9                      SE  7
CWR                   0            0            40
LAL                   1            2            4
Haines Index          4            4            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the upper 80s.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Southeast winds around 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

 

TXZ207-221-223-040400-
Guadalupe-Wilson-Gonzales-
Including the cities of Seguin, Floresville, and Gonzales
647 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Independence Day

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       PCldy
Chance precip (%)     0            0            50
Precip Type           NONE         NONE         tstms
Temp (24h trend)      101 (+4)     73 (-2)      96
RH % (24h trend)      26 (-1)      92 (-8)      33
20ftWnd-AM(MPH)       S  7                      SW  5
20ftWnd-PM(MPH)       S  8         SE 10        S  9
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)    7787                      3124
Transport wnd (MPH)   S  9                      SE  7
CWR                   0            0            40
LAL                   1            1            4
Haines Index          4            4            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY...Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs around 90. Southeast
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance
of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the
mid 90s. Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

 

Lee-Fayette-
Including the cities of Giddings and La Grange
647 AM CDT Tue Jul 3 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Independence Day

Cloud cover           PCldy        MClear       MCldy
Chance precip (%)     0            10           60
Precip Type           NONE         tstms        tstms
Temp (24h trend)      98 (+2)      74 (-1)      88
RH % (24h trend)      29 (-3)      91 (-9)      54
20ftWnd-AM(MPH)       SW  6                     W  6
20ftWnd-PM(MPH)       S  6         SE  8        SE  8
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)    7283                      1344
Transport wnd (MPH)   S  8                      S  6
CWR                   0            0            60
LAL                   1            2            4
Haines Index          4            4            3

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs around 90. Southeast
winds up to 5 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s.
Southeast winds up to 5 mph.
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the lower 90s. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

TTR Weather Update for COLORADO, JACKSON, and WHARTON Counties from the National Weather Service in Houston/Galveston – 

Heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds are possible tonight through Wednesday night.

Overview
Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are possible tonight through Wednesday evening as an upper level disturbance passes over Southeast Texas. The primary threats will be frequent lightning, gusty winds 30-40 mph with the stronger storms, and locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals will be 1-3″ with locally heavier amounts in excess of 4-5″ possible through Wednesday night. Confidence in rainfall totals is moderate while confidence in the location of heavier rainfall totals is low. Thunderstorm activity will end Wednesday evening through Wednesday night from east to west. Confidence for timing the end of thunderstorm activity is low.

Urban Flash Flood Messaging
Heavy rainfall is forecast for portions of Southeast Texas, including highly urbanized areas like the Houston metropolitan area. Based on forecast conditions, NWS Houston will be utilizing the following urban flash flood messaging for this event:
>- Drive with caution. Car may flood in low-lying areas. Ponding on roadways may increase risk of hydroplaning.
>- Pay attention to the weather. Monitor HCFCD, TranStar, and NWS for current conditions.
>- Rain may move repeatedly across the same area, causing a rapid rise on creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous. However, creeks and bayous are not likely to exceed their banks.

Resources
If you have any additional questions, please feel free to contact our office at the phone numbers listed in the Resources section above.

>Katie Magee and Josh Lichter

National Weather Service – Houston/Galveston, TX

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