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Thursday Tropical Wave Update

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Good morning,

Here is an update on the tropical wave we are monitoring over the western Caribbean Sea.

What We Know:

  • The system remains disorganized near the Yucatan Peninsula.
  • Environmental conditions are looking less conducive for tropical cyclone development in the southwest Gulf of Mexico as the area of disturbed weather moves west-northwest Friday through the weekend. The National Hurricane Center has reduced the chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 5 days to only 10%.
  • We do expect an increase in moisture, tied to the tropical wave, to move into the region during the upcoming weekend and persist through Wednesday, providing periods of good rain chances.
  • Generally a widespread 2-3 inches of rain is expected Sunday through Wednesday, however, isolated pockets of 5-7 inches are possible. It is currently difficult to pinpoint locations where these pockets could occur. Overall, confidence has increased slightly in this rainfall forecast since yesterday.
  • It should be stressed this is a rainfall forecast over a 4 day period and generally speaking significant, widespread flooding concerns are currently not anticipated given the ongoing drought conditions. However, given the tropical nature of the airmass, there could be some pockets where higher rainfall rates produce minor flooding issues.
  • Please follow and share only trusted sources, such as forecasts from the experts at the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov).

What We Don’t Know:

  • It is too soon to have high confidence on locations where the isolated heavier pockets of rainfall will occur across South Central Texas.

When We Will Know More:

  • Confidence in rainfall amounts and locations should continue to increase through the weekend.
  • Another update will be provided by Friday morning.

Additional Information Resources:

Sincerely,

Jason Runyen
NWS Austin / San Antonio
Weather Forecast Office
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels, TX 78130

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