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Wednesday Tropical Update

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Good morning,

Here is an update on the tropical wave we are monitoring over the western Caribbean Sea.

What We Know:

  • The system remains disorganized over the western Caribbean Sea. No organization is expected through Thursday as the system moves over the Yucatan.
  • Environmental conditions could become slightly more conducive for some development of the system in the southwest Gulf of Mexico Friday through the weekend. However, as of now most reliable models keep this feature an open wave or broad area of low pressure. The National Hurricane Center currently gives the tropical wave a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.
  • We do expect an increase in moisture, tied to the tropical wave, to move into the region during the upcoming weekend and persist through the early to middle portion of next week.
  • The best chances of rain will be Sunday through Tuesday. Generally 1-3 inches of rain is expected over the three days, however isolated pockets of 4-6 inches are possible. It should be stressed that confidence in this rainfall forecast is currently low and is likely to be adjusted as we get closer to the weekend.
  • Please follow and share only trusted sources, such as forecasts from the experts at the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov).

What We Don’t Know:

  • If tropical cyclone development will occur late in the week.
  • It is too soon to have high confidence in rainfall amounts and locations for the weekend and early to middle portion of next week.

When We Will Know More:

  • Confidence in rainfall amounts and whether or not tropical development will occur should increase through the later half of the week.
  • Another update will be provided by Thursday morning.

Additional Information Resources:

Sincerely,

Jason Runyen
NWS Austin / San Antonio
Weather Forecast Office
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels, TX 78130

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