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Tuesday Tropical Update

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Good morning,

Here is an update on the tropical wave we are monitoring over the western Caribbean Sea.

What We Know:

  • Not much change to the forecast since yesterday. As of Tuesday morning, the National Hurricane Center currently gives the tropical wave a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.
  • Regardless of development, we do expect an increase in moisture, tied to the tropical wave, to move into the region during the upcoming weekend and persist through the early to middle portion of next week.
  • This could potentially bring some beneficial rainfall to portions of South Central Texas over the weekend and into the early to middle portion of next week.
  • Please follow and share only trusted sources, such as forecasts from the experts at the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov).

What We Don’t Know:

  • If tropical cyclone development will occur late in the week.
  • It is too soon to determine rainfall amounts for the weekend and early to middle portion of next week.

When We Will Know More:

  • Confidence in rainfall amounts and whether or not tropical development will occur should increase during the middle to later half of the week.
  • Another update will be provided by Wednesday morning.

Additional Information Resources:

 

Sincerely,
Jason Runyen
NWS Austin / San Antonio
Weather Forecast Office
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels, TX 78130

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