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UPDATE: Tropical Update and Dispelling Rumors

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Good Afternoon,

Overall, the message from this morning has not changed much. We did want to highlight that the National Hurricane Center has given the tropical wave a very low chance (20%) to form into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. We will continue to monitor the latest information and provide updates this week. Remember, regardless of any tropical cyclone formation, increasing moisture should bring rain chances to the entire area beginning Sunday.

What We Know:

  • We do expect an increase in moisture, tied to a tropical wave, to move into the region during the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
  • This could potentially bring some beneficial rainfall to portions of South Central Texas Sunday into early next week.
  • We DO NOT rely solely on ONE forecast model to predict the weather or tropical events.
  • Avoid sharing social media posts floating around of forecasts from one model depiction.
  • Please follow and share only trusted sources, such as forecasts from the experts at the National Hurricane Center.
  • As of Monday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center currently gives the tropical wave a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days. Visit www.hurricanes.gov for the latest forecasts through the week.

What We Don’t Know:

  • If tropical cyclone development will occur late in the week.
  • Rainfall amounts and locations.

When We Will Know More:

  • We should begin to have a better sense of how things will evolve by the middle part of the week.

Additional Information Resources:

Sincerely,

Nick Hampshire
NWS Austin / San Antonio
Weather Forecast Office
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels, TX 78130

Tropical Update and Dispelling Rumors

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We want to keep you fully up to date on the tropics and hope to dispel rumors floating around about tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of Mexico later this week. Here is what we know and what we don’t know at this time.

What We Know:

  • We do expect an increase in moisture, tied to a tropical wave, to move into the region during the upcoming weekend and into early next week.
  • This could potentially bring some beneficial rainfall to portions of South Central Texas Sunday into early next week.
  • We DO NOT rely solely on ONE forecast model to predict the weather or tropical events.
  • Avoid sharing social media posts floating around of forecasts from one model depiction.
  • Please follow and share only trusted sources, such as forecasts from the experts at the National Hurricane Center.
  • As of Monday morning, the National Hurricane Center currently does not expect tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf during the next 5 days. Visit www.hurricanes.gov for the latest forecasts through the week.

 

What We Don’t Know:

  • If tropical cyclone development will occur late in the week.
  • Rainfall amounts and locations.

 

When We Will Know More:

  • We should begin to have a better sense of how things will evolve by the middle part of the week.

 

Additional Information Resources:

 

Sincerely,
Jason Runyen
NWS Austin / San Antonio
Weather Forecast Office
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels, TX 78130

weather.gov/austin

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