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TTR Weather Update for May 30, 2018

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Heat index values this afternoon will peak up to 110 degrees close to the Rio Grande with 98 to 105 degree values elsewhere. Residents and visitors to the area are urged to take precautions for heat illness. Take frequent breaks from the heat, wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing, and drink plenty of water. In addition, never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles…Look Before You Lock.

Hot and dry conditions will continue through all of next week across South Central Texas. Highs in the upper 90s to triple digits are forecast. Peak heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees are possible in many areas outside of the Hill Country. The hottest region will be along the Rio Grande where high temperatures will be 104-106 each day. Heat indices in this region may get as high as 110 especially on Thursday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for northern areas on Sunday. Residents and visitors are urged to take precautions for heat illness. Take frequent breaks from the heat, wear lightweight and loose-fitting clothing, and drink plenty of water. In addition, never leave children or pets unattended in vehicles…Look Before You Lock.

Today: Partly cloudy until late afternoon then clearing. Highs in the mid 90s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Highest heat index readings around 107.

Tonight: Partly cloudy before midnight then becoming mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs in the mid 90s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Highest heat index readings around 106.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs in the mid 90s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Highest heat index readings around 107.

Friday Night Through Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the upper 90s.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Highs in the upper 90s. Highest heat index readings around 108 in the afternoon.

Sunday Night Through Tuesday: Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the upper 90s.

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for South Central Texas
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
609 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

.DISCUSSION...
The weather will continue to be hot and dry across South Central
Texas through the next week. Winds this afternoon and Thursday
afternoon will increase to between 15 and 20 mph while afternoon
relative humidity values range from near 30 along the Rio Grande
Plains to 40-50 along and east of I-35. These conditions could
promote the spread of any fires that door form and also help to
continue to dry out area fuels. Afternoon high temperatures from
the upper 90s to 104 will occur each afternoon for the next
several days across South Central Texas. Going into the weekend
winds will decrease, but so will relative humidity values although
for now they should stay above elevated levels.
Karnes-De Witt-Lavaca-
Including the cities of Karnes City, Cuero, and Halletsville
609 AM CDT Wed May 30 2018

                      Today        Tonight      Thu

Cloud cover           PCldy        PCldy        PCldy
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0
Precip Type           NONE         NONE         NONE
Temp (24h trend)      97 (+1)      74 (0)       97
RH % (24h trend)      37 (+6)      96 (-4)      37
20ftWnd-AM(MPH)       S 11                      S 11
20ftWnd-PM(MPH)       S 13         SE 13        S 13
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)    4623                      3775
Transport wnd (MPH)   S 17                      SE 17
CWR                   0            0            0
LAL                   1            1            1
Haines Index          4            4            4

Remarks...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...

.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the upper
90s. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s. Highs in the upper
90s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 70s.
Highs in the upper 90s. Southeast winds 5 to 15 mph.

Forecasters predict a near or above normal 2018 Atlantic hurricane season

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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook

  • Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center are forecasting a 75 percent chance that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be near-or above-normal.
  • Forecasters predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1st to November 30th.
  • NOAA forecasters predict a 70 percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4, or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.
  • The possibility of a weak El Nino developing, along with near-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic ocean and Caribbean Sea, are two of the factors driving this outlook. These factors are set upon a backdrop of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development and have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.
  • NOAA will update the 2018 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.
Check our hurricane guide for preparedness details. (will be updated for 2018 soon)  It’s time to get prepared!
Sincerely,
John
Warning Coordination Meteorologist
National Weather Service Corpus Christi, TX

May 24, 2018 – NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 75-percent chance that the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season will be near- or above-normal.

NOAA's GOES-16 satellite (now GOES-East) captured this infrared/visible image of Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017.

Forecasters predict a 35 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a 25 percent chance of a below-normal season for the upcoming hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30.

“With the advances made in hardware and computing over the course of the last year, the ability of NOAA scientists to both predict the path of storms and warn Americans who may find themselves in harm’s way is unprecedented,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “The devastating hurricane season of 2017 demonstrated the necessity for prompt and accurate hurricane forecasts.”

NOAA’s forecasters predict a 70-percent likelihood of 10 to 16 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 5 to 9 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

Hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms.
Hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms. (NOAA)

The possibility of a weak El Nino developing, along with near-average sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, are two of the factors driving this outlook. These factors are set upon a backdrop of atmospheric and oceanic conditions that are conducive to hurricane development and have been producing stronger Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995.

“NOAA’s observational and modeling enhancements for the 2018 season put us on the path to deliver the world’s best regional and global weather models,” said Neil Jacobs, Ph.D., assistant secretary of commerce for environmental observation and prediction. “These upgrades are key to improving hurricane track and intensity forecasts, allowing NOAA to deliver the best science and service to the nation.”

Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, gives a summary of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season outlook.
Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, gives a summary of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. (NOAA)

NOAA’s suite of sophisticated technologies – from next-generation models and satellite data to new and improved forecast and graphical products – enable decision makers and the general public to take action before, during, and after hurricanes, helping to build a more “Weather-Ready Nation.” New tools available this year to assist in hurricane forecasts and communications include:

  • NOAA’s fleet of earth-observing satellites is more robust than ever with the successful launch of the GOES-17 satellite in March. This satellite, along with the GOES-16 satellite – now GOES-East – contribute to a comprehensive picture of weather throughout the Western Hemisphere, allowing forecasters to observe storms as they develop.

  • The new polar-orbiting satellite, NOAA-20, will join the NOAA/NASA Suomi NPP satellite and use a suite of sophisticated instruments to gather high-resolution data from around the globe to feed NOAA’s weather models, driving the 3-7 day weather forecast that is critical to preparedness and effective evacuations.

  • The National Weather Service will run a version of the Global Forecast System (called FV3 GFS) with a new dynamic core alongside the current GFS model – often referred to as the American model – during the 2018 season. This will mark the first dynamic core upgrade to NOAA’s flagship weather model in more than 35 years, representing the first step in re-engineering NOAA’s models to provide the best possible science-based predictions for the nation.

  • NOAA’s hurricane-specific model – the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system – will be upgraded to offer greater resolution than ever before, increasing model resolution from 1.2 miles to 0.9 miles (2 km to 1.5 km) near the center of a storm. Additionally, the Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean coupled Non-hydrostatic model was first implemented in 2017 and will undergo upgrades for the 2018 season to include greater resolution, new physics and coupling with ocean models.

  • NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will make the Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds graphics operational for this hurricane season. One graphic displays the “earliest reasonable” arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds, at which point further preparedness activities could be hindered. A second graphic displays the “most-likely” arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds.

2018 Atlantic tropical cyclone names.
2018 Atlantic tropical cyclone names. (NOAA)

“Preparing ahead of a disaster is the responsibility of all levels of government, the private sector and the public,” said acting FEMA Deputy Administrator Daniel Kaniewski. “It only takes one storm to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare. Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have a communication and evacuation plan? Stay tuned to your local news and download the FEMA app to get alerts, and make sure you heed any warnings issued by local officials.”

In addition to the Atlantic hurricane season outlook, NOAA also issued seasonal hurricane outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins. An 80 percent chance of a near- or above-normal season is predicted for both the eastern and central Pacific regions. The eastern Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 14 to 20 named storms, of which 7 to 12 are expected to become hurricanes, including 3 to 7 major hurricanes. The central Pacific outlook calls for a 70-percent probability of 3 to 6 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes.

NOAA will update the 2018 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the peak of the season.

TTR Weather Outlook

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Isolated showers and storms will be possible across the eastern areas Wednesday through Saturday. Drier weather is likely across the west. A warming trend will begin Thursday through the weekend.

Rest Of Today: 
Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 80s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy in the morning, then partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 90s. East winds 5 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

Friday: Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid-90s.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 70s.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs in the mid-90s.

Saturday Night Through Memorial Day: Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 70s. Highs in the mid-90s.

Lone Star Outdoors Show for Saturday, May 26th.

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Hello Friends!

Nolan Ryan, Gary P Nunn, Takahiro Omori and Dr. Deer highlight this weeks edition of the Lone Star Outdoors Show.

Join us Saturday morning at 8, on Texas Thunder Radio.

Cheers,
Cable Smith
Owner/Host  Lone Star Outdoors Show

Tropical cyclone development in and near the Gulf of Mexico over the next five days.

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We do have the potential of tropical cyclone development in and near the Gulf of Mexico over the next five (5) days.  Currently, there is no direct threat to the Middle Texas Coast.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a weak disturbance across the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  There is a low chance (20%) for tropical cyclone development within the next five (5) days as this area for potential development moves into the central Gulf of Mexico.  This disturbance is expected to remain well east of the region and poses no direct threats to South Texas and the Middle Texas Coast at this time.

Unless major changes occur to the forecast, No additional briefings are planned at this time.

Although systems can and have developed before the start of the season, now is a good time to remind you that Hurricane Season officially begins June 1.

Additional Information Resources:

National Hurricane Center:
  www.hurricanes.gov
NWS Corpus Christi:  www.weather.gov/corpuschristi
New Local Tropical Webpage:  https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=crp

Sincerely,
Lara K. Beal
NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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