A series of upper level disturbances coupled with a cold front will bring several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to Southeast Texas beginning late Tuesday night or very early Wednesday morning and again late Wednesday afternoon and evening.
An upper level disturbance will approach the region from the southwest late Tuesday night. This disturbance will bring showers and thunderstorms to Southeast Texas. Conditions with these storms look favorable to produce large hail and brief but locally heavy rain. The disturbance will exit the region around noon.
Timing: Wednesday morning 4 AM to Noon
Confidence with the first event is moderate to high.
A second disturbance coupled with a cold front will trigger a second round of showers and thunderstorms toward evening. This episode of storms could also produce severe weather with strong damaging winds as the primary severe weather hazard.
Timing: Wednesday 4 PM to 11 PM
Confidence with the second event is low to moderate.
Like Saturday night, a few of the models show capping in place for the second event which will limit the convective potential.
Cloud debris from the morning storms may limit heating and lower the threat for active weather in the afternoon.
NWS Houston/Galveston Webpage: www.weather.gov/houston
Hourly Forecasts (Click Your Location): http://forecast.weather.gov/gridpoint.php?site=hgx&TypeDefault=graphical
West Gulf River Forecast Center Webpage: www.weather.gov/wgrfc
AHPS Webpage: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=hgx
Charles Roeseler and Paul Lewis
National Weather Service – Houston/Galveston, TX